2019 Oscar Nominations: My Predictions

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Here are my predictions for the Oscar nominations that will be announced tomorrow morning. (As always, I didn’t attempt to guess at the three short film categories since I never really know anything about them until after the nominations come out.) Certain categories were particularly difficult for me to decide on, like Best Director, Best Hair & Makeup and the Best Sound Editing/Mixing awards, but I’ve done my best to read the minds of a voting group that is gradually expanding and diversifying.

(P.S. Many pundits anticipate that Ethan Hawke will receive a Best Actor nomination for First Reformed. I would love for that to happen, but Paul Schrader’s drama was ignored by SAG, the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, so ultimately I don’t envision Hawke for the final five among lead actors. If he is nominated, though, I will be just as pleased as everyone else who has seen his remarkable work in the film, knowing that he deserves the acclaim.)

Best Picture: BlacKkKlansman; Black Panther; Bohemian Rhapsody; The Favourite; First Man; Green Book; If Beale Street Could Talk; Roma; A Star Is Born; Vice

Best Director: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born); Alfonso Cuarón (Roma); Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite); Spike Lee (BlackKklansman); Adam McKay (Vice)

Best Actress: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma); Glenn Close (The Wife); Olivia Colman (The Favourite); Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born); Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Best Actor: Christian Bale (Vice); Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody); Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born); Viggo Mortensen (Green Book); John David Washington (BlackKklansman)

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams (Vice); Claire Foy (First Man); Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk); Emma Stone (The Favourite); Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Green Book); Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy); Adam Driver (BlackKklansman); Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born); Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Best Adapted Screenplay: BlackKklansman; Black Panther; Can You Ever Forgive Me?; If Beale Street Could Talk; Leave No Trace

Best Original Screenplay: The Favourite; First Reformed; Green Book; Roma; Vice

Best Cinematography: Cold War; The Favourite; First Man; Roma; A Star Is Born

Best Editing: Black Panther; First Man; Roma; A Star Is Born; Vice

Best Production Design: Black Panther; The Favourite; First Man; Mary Poppins Returns; Roma

Best Costume Design: Black Panther; Bohemian Rhapsody; The Favourite; Mary Poppins Returns; Mary Queen of Scots

Best Hair & Makeup: Border; Mary Queen of Scots; Vice

Best Sound Editing: Black Panther; Bohemian Rhapsody; First Man; A Quiet Place; A Star Is Born

Best Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody; First Man; A Quiet Place; Roma; A Star Is Born

Best Visual Effects: Avengers: Infinity War; Black Panther; First Man; Ready Player One; Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Original Score: BlackKklansman; First Man; If Beale Street Could Talk; Isle of Dogs; Mary Poppins Returns

Best Original Song: “All the Stars” (Black Panther); “Girl in the Movies” (Dumplin’); “The Place Where Lost Things Go” (Mary Poppins Returns); “I’ll Fight” (RBG); “Shallow” (A Star Is Born)

Best Foreign Language Film: Burning; Capernaum; Cold War; Roma; Shoplifters

Best Animated Feature: Incredibles 2; Isle of Dogs; Mirai; Ralph Breaks the Internet; Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Documentary: Free Solo; Minding the Gap; Of Fathers and Sons; RBG; Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

2018 Oscar Predictions!

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Best Picture: The Shape of Water

Best Director: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)

Best Actor: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Best Actress: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

Best Original Screenplay: Jordan Peele (Get Out)

Best Adapted Screenplay: James Ivory (Call Me by Your Name)

Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)

Best Film Editing: Jonathan Amos and Paul Machliss (Baby Driver)

Best Production Design: Paul D. Austerberry (The Shape of Water)

Best Costume Design: Mark Bridges (Phantom Thread)

Best Hair & Makeup: Darkest Hour

Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk

Best Sound Mixing: Baby Driver

Best Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat (The Shape of Water)

Best Original Song: “Remember Me” (Coco)

Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman (Chile)

Best Animated Feature: Coco

Best Documentary Feature: Faces Places

Best Documentary Short: Heroin(e)

Best Animated Short: Dear Basketball

Best Live-Action Short: DeKalb Elementary

2018 Oscar Nomination Predictions!

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It’s that time of year again: tomorrow morning, the Oscar nominations will be announced. Some of my predictions were particularly difficult to make, like Best Picture (the Academy can pick up to ten candidates but the final number is more likely to be eight or nine), Best Actress (I consider Sally Hawkins, Frances McDormand, Margot Robbie and Saoirse Ronan to be the locks but there’s a fight between Jessica Chastain and Meryl Streep for the fifth spot) and Best Supporting Actor (I suspect that Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg will cancel each other out and make room for Christopher Plummer), as well as the many technical categories. Darkest Hour, for example, is now a stronger contender for many awards than I initially thought it would be just a few months ago.

I struggled with figuring out whether Wonder Woman would be able to make it into the Sound Editing/Mixing and Visual Effects competitions. Various films in the sci-fi, fantasy and superhero genres could elbow their way into the conversation. It would also be wonderful if I, Tonya scores in the Best Original Screenplay field, and if Variety’s predictions about The Florida Project earning surprise nods for Best Picture and Best Director come true.

(Incidentally, I have not predicted the short film categories because I have not read enough about them yet.)

Best Picture: Call Me by Your Name; Darkest Hour; Dunkirk; Get Out; I, Tonya; Lady Bird; The Post; The Shape of Water; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Director: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water); Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird); Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri); Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk); Jordan Peele (Get Out)

Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name); Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread); James Franco (The Disaster Artist); Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out); Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Best Actress: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water); Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri); Margot Robbie (I, Tonya); Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird); Meryl Streep (The Post)

Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project); Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri); Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water); Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World); Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Best Supporting Actress: Mary J. Blige (Mudbound); Hong Chau (Downsizing); Holly Hunter (The Big Sick); Allison Janney (I, Tonya); Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Best Original Screenplay: Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick); Jordan Peele (Get Out); Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird); Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor (The Shape of Water); Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Best Adapted Screenplay: James Ivory (Call Me by Your Name); Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber (The Disaster Artist); Scott Frank, Michael Green and James Mangold (Logan); Aaron Sorkin (Molly’s Game); Dee Rees and Virgil Williams (Mudbound)

Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049); Bruno Delbonnel (Darkest Hour); Hoyte van Hoytema (Dunkirk); Rachel Morrison (Mudbound); Dan Laustsen (The Shape of Water)

Best Film Editing: Jonathan Amos and Paul Machliss (Baby Driver); Lee Smith (Dunkirk); Tatiana S. Riegel (I, Tonya); Sidney Wolinsky (The Shape of Water); Jon Gregory (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Best Production Design: Sarah Greenwood (Beauty and the Beast); Dennis Gassner and Alessandora Querzola (Blade Runner 2049); Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer (Darkest Hour); Nathan Crowley and Gary Fettis (Dunkirk); Paul D. Austerberry (The Shape of Water)

Best Costume Design: Jacqueline Durran (Beauty and the Beast); Jacqueline Durran (Darkest Hour); Jennifer Johnson (I, Tonya); Mark Bridges (Phantom Thread); Luis Sequeira (The Shape of Water)

Best Hair & Makeup: Darkest Hour; I, Tonya; Wonder

Best Sound Editing: Baby Driver; Blade Runner 2049; Dunkirk; The Shape of Water; Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Sound Mixing: Baby Driver; Blade Runner 2049; Dunkirk; The Shape of Water; Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049; Dunkirk; The Shape of Water; War for the Planet of the Apes; Wonder Woman

Best Original Score: Dario Marianelli (Darkest Hour); Hans Zimmer (Dunkirk); Jonny Greenwood (Phantom Thread); John Williams (The Post); Alexandre Desplat (The Shape of Water)

Best Original Song: “Mystery of Love” (Call Me by Your Name); “Remember Me” (Coco); “This Is Me” (The Greatest Showman); “Stand Up for Something” (Marshall); “Mighty River” (Mudbound)

Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman (Chile); Foxtrot (Israel); In the Fade (Germany); Loveless (Russia); The Square (Sweden)

Best Animated Feature: The Boss Baby; The Breadwinner; Coco; The LEGO Batman Movie; Loving Vincent

Best Documentary Feature: City of Ghosts; Faces Places; Icarus; Jane; Strong Island

The 2017 Oscars: A 10-Image Summary

These GIFs and still images capture what I consider some of the most memorable moments from last night’s Academy Awards ceremony. It was an interesting night, for sure, and one that won’t soon be forgotten by viewers. From messages of political protest and diversity/inclusivity to the shocking ending that would have fit just as easily in a Hollywood thriller, on several counts the 2017 Oscars earned its unique place in the history books.

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Michael Shannon trying to stop the feeling during Justin Timberlake’s show-opening performance

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Best Supporting Actor, the first award of the night: Moonlight’s Mahershala Ali (the first Muslim actor to win an Oscar)

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Viola Davis’s Best Supporting Actress speech – award-worthy in its own right

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Taraji P. Henson’s unbridled joy at receiving one of the snack packages that floated down from the rafters

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98-year-old Katherine Johnson, onstage with Hidden Figures stars Janelle Monáe, Taraji P. Henson (who plays Johnson in the film) and Octavia Spencer for the Best Documentary Feature category

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The Lion stars, in toto

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While presenting animated film categories with Hailee Steinfeld, Gael García Bernal speaks out against Trump

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Anousheh Ansari (the first Iranian astronaut to go into space, as well as the first Muslim woman) reads director Asghar Farhadi’s statement after The Salesman won for Best Foreign Language Film

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Twist ending!

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Puts it all in perspective, no?

2017 Oscar Predictions

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Best Picture: La La Land

Best Actor: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

Best Actress: Emma Stone (La La Land)

Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)

Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Fences)

Best Director: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

Best Original Screenplay: Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)

Best Adapted Screenplay: Barry Jenkins (screenplay) and Tarell Alvin McCraney (play/story) (Moonlight)

Best Animated Feature Film: Zootopia

Best Foreign Language Film: The Salesman (Iran)

Best Cinematography: Linus Sandgren (La La Land)

Best Editing: Tom Cross (La La Land)

Best Production Design: David Wasco and Sandy Reynolds-Wasco (La La Land)

Best Costume Design: Madeline Fontaine (Jackie)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Richard Alonzo and Joel Harlow (Star Trek Beyond)

Best Original Score: Justin Hurwitz (La La Land)

Best Original Song: Justin Hurwitz (music) and Benj Pasek & Justin Paul (lyrics), “City of Stars” (La La Land)

Best Sound Mixing: Ai-Ling Lee, Steve A. Morrow and Andy Nelson (La La Land)

Best Sound Editing: Robert Mackenzie and Andy Wright (Hacksaw Ridge)

Best Visual Effects: Andrew R. Jones, Robert Legato, Dan Lemmon and Adam Valdez (The Jungle Book)

Best Documentary, Feature: O.J.: Made in America

Best Documentary, Short Subject: The White Helmets

Best Short Film, Animated: Piper

Best Short Film, Live Action: Ennemis Intérieurs

Ranking the Films of 2016

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Spoiler alert: I haven’t seen every film from 2016 yet. I need to see a number of Academy Award contenders, including Fences, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Land of Mine, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, Nocturnal Animals, The Salesman, Toni Erdmann and 20th Century Women. Despite this gross oversight on my part – hey, some of these are still in theaters; I’ll have more chances after Oscar night! – I have ranked the films I have seen, including (just under the wire) Hacksaw Ridge a few short hours ago.

35 Films, Ranked Best to Worst:

  1. Loving – dir. Jeff Nichols
  2. Captain Fantastic – dir. Matt Ross
  3. Hell or High Water – dir. David Mackenzie
  4. Weiner – dirs. Josh Kriegman and Elyse Steinberg
  5. Chicken People – dir. Nicole Lucas Haimes
  6. Jackie – dir. Pablo Larraín
  7. Florence Foster Jenkins – dir. Stephen Frears
  8. One More Time with Feeling – dir. Andrew Dominik
  9. The Fits – dir. Anna Rose Holmer
  10. Hacksaw Ridge – dir. Mel Gibson
  11. Anthropoid – dir. Sean Ellis
  12. Star Trek Beyond – dir. Justin Lin
  13. Eddie the Eagle – dir. Dexter Fletcher
  14. Captain America: Civil War – dirs. Anthony Russo and Joe Russo
  15. The Lobster – dir. Yorgos Lanthimos
  16. Paterson – dir. Jim Jarmusch
  17. Lion – dir. Garth Davis
  18. Hello, My Name Is Doris – dir. Michael Showalter
  19. Hail, Caesar! – dirs. Ethan Coen and Joel Coen
  20. Marathon: The Patriots Day Bombing – dirs. Ricki Stern and Anne Sundberg
  21. Keanu – dir. Peter Atencio
  22. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice – dir. Zack Snyder
  23. The Dressmaker – dir. Jocelyn Moorhouse
  24. Midnight Special – dir. Jeff Nichols
  25. How to Be Single – dir. Christian Ditter
  26. Arrival – dir. Denis Villeneuve
  27. X-Men: Apocalypse – dir. Bryan Singer
  28. Deadpool – dir. Tim Miller
  29. City of Gold – dir. Laura Gabbert
  30. Triple 9 – dir. John Hillcoat
  31. Snowden – dir. Oliver Stone
  32. Now You See Me 2 – dir. Jon M. Chu
  33. Ghostbusters – dir. Paul Feig
  34. Standing Tall – dir. Emmanuelle Bercot
  35. Money Monster – dir. Jodie Foster

I’ve Just Seen a Face

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Sometimes there are faces that are so incredible in close-ups and extreme close-ups that they are almost painful to witness. Cinema makes these visages become works of art, portraits encased in celluloid (or digital, depending on the director) museums where history is captured and stored at the rate of 24 frames per second. These are faces that transcend any theoretical limitations of the camera, the perceptions of the audience, maybe even the story being told – the character evolves into a new and different beast, in the most positive sense. When an actor displays this level of ability to breathe life and meaning into a role, far beyond whatever was suggested on the pages of the script, you will know without hesitation that you have encountered a transformative creation that is both magnificently constructed for the movie theater experience and is also, in a strange way, even more affecting, thought-provoking and real than reality.

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Natalie Portman’s depiction of Jackie Kennedy in the new Pablo Larraín film Jackie is one example of this phenomenon. Close-ups and extreme close-ups allow nowhere for the actor, or the audience, to hide. Portman has to be able to project every ounce of Jackie’s grief, fear, self-loathing and stubborn vanity when her face fills the frame, and moviegoers have to confront those images over and over. Larraín’s film achieves the unbelievable feat of simultaneously getting under the skin of a complex woman, digging into her soul during the most heartbreaking and traumatic week of her life, and also staying at a distance, allowing the character to shape the recollection of events being told to a reporter (Billy Crudup) a week after JFK’s assassination. Jackie reminds me of 20,000 Days on Earth (2014), the scripted documentary in which Nick Cave recounts five decades’ worth of memories and shows us the controlled version of his life that he wants us to see – sleeping, eating, typing lyrics in a house which isn’t his actual house; reciting monologues that explain his innermost emotions via voiceovers recorded in post-production. Objectivity does not exist when people decide how their truths are told and how facts are remembered.

At one point in the film, Portman’s Jackie murmurs, “I lost track somewhere. What was real? What was performance?” Who but Jackie Kennedy herself can say whether Natalie Portman’s performance is psychologically accurate? Perhaps Pablo Larraín and screenwriter Noah Oppenheim provide no concrete answers, either for Jackie (the character or the real person), for Portman as an actress or for us as the onlookers. The only certainty I have that Portman succeeded in her portrayal is a gut feeling, the awareness when the end credits began to roll that she had accomplished something that will continue to resonate with me, long after this Oscar season ends.

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